© Reuters. March Madness 2024: Betting Odds, How To Watch NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, Use Data To Predict Winner
Benzinga – by Chris Katje, Benzinga Staff Writer.
March Madness is one of the most bet on sporting events year after year and with more states legalizing online sports betting, the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament could provide a boost to the sports betting sector.
How to Watch 2024 March Madness: The 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament once again has shared rights between Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) and Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA)(NASDAQ:PARAA).
Warner-owned truTV will serve as the home of the first four games on Tuesday, March 19 and Wednesday, March 20.
Warner’s TBS, TNT and truTV will air games throughout the rest of the tournament including TBS being the exclusive home for the Final Four (April 6) and Championship (April 8) games.
Paramount’s CBS will air games throughout the tournament as part of the coverage.
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Betting Odds: The Men’s Tournament bracket was unveiled on Sunday, March 17 and teams seeded 1 through 16 in four regions along with the four play-in games have been determined.
Here are the top 16 teams based on the 1 to 4 seeds and their betting odds from sportsbook DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) to reach the Final Four and win the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.
1 seeds:
- Connecticut: +105 (Final 4), +400 (Champion)
- Houston: +140, +500
- Purdue: +165, +600
- North Carolina: +230, +1,400
2 seeds:
- Arizona: +190, +1,200
- Marquette: +350, +3,000
- Iowa State: +400, +2,000
- Tennessee: +350, +1,600
3 seeds:
- Creighton: +400, +3,000
- Kentucky: +700, +2,500
- Illinois: +750, +3,500
- Baylor: +700, +3,000
4 seeds:
- Auburn: +380, +1,500
- Duke: +450, +3,500
- Alabama: +900, +4,000
- Kansas: +1,000, +5,000
Using Data to Predict 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks began the 2023-2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball season as the top ranked team and had the best odds to win the championship. The team fell in the rankings since and finds themselves as a 4-seed in the tournament.
The bad news for Kansas fans is they don’t fit the criteria likely needed to win this year’s tournament.
Dating back to 1999, Ken Pomeroy has provided basketball rankings known as KenPom that take into account offensive and defensive efficiencies and also predicts which teams would win in matchups.
Since 2002, all but two teams that won the championship ranked as a top 20 adjusted offensive and top 20 adjusted defensive efficiency team based on the KenPom rankings.
All of the champions since 2002 have ranked in the top 40 offensive efficiencies and in the top 25 defensive efficiencies.
Using this data, here is a look at the teams that fit the criteria to win this year’s championship. Here are the teams that rank in the top 20 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.
- Connecticut: 1st offensive, 11th defensive
- Arizona: 8th offensive, 12th defensive
- Auburn: 10th offensive, 4th defensive
- Houston: 17th offensive, 2nd defensive
Here are the team that rank close to making the cut.
- Purdue: 4th offensive, 21st defensive
- Duke: 7th offensive, 26th defensive
- Creighton: 12th offensive, 24th defensive
- Marquette: 21st offensive, 19th defensive
- North Carolina: 24th offensive, 6th defensive
- Tennessee: 29th offensive, 3rd defensive
- Texas Tech: 23rd offensive, 45th defensive
- Nebraska: 36th offensive, 30th defensive
- Nevada: 40th offensive, 36th defensive
Only Connecticut, Arizona, Auburn and Houston make the cut for top 20 offensive and defensive. When taking into account the top 40 offensive and top 25 defensive, the list also adds in Purdue, Creighton, Marquette, North Carolina, Tennessee and New Mexico.
While getting a top seed doesn’t guarantee winning, 33 of the last 38 winners have been top three seeds in the tournament, including seven of the last eight winners. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, 63% of the winners have been a 1 seed and 87% of the winners have been a top-3 seed.
Top four seeds have won 92% of the tournaments since the field expanded. Only two seeds over 3 have won in the last 25 seasons, fourth ranked Connecticut last year and 7th ranked Connecticut in 2014.
This means that only Connecticut, Arizona and Houston fit the likely criteria of top 20 offensive, top 20 defensive and a top three seed. Auburn falls just shy with a 4-seed.
Teams that fit being a top 40 offensive, top 25 defensive and having a 1, 2 or 3 seed are Connecticut, Purdue, Arizona, Creighton, Houston, Marquette, North Carolina and Tennessee.
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