- There is a 75% chance of a Cardano ETF launching this year
- ADA might stay stuck in neutral, while the rest of the market waits for that green light
Normally, when Bitcoin smashes through its resistance level, big money flows into high-cap alts, sparking a chain reaction of breakouts.
Not this time though. Despite BTC’s strength and the crypto market cap bouncing by 2.11% back to $3 trillion, Cardano [ADA] – and most top alts – are still dragging below their late Q1 highs.
What’s missing? One word – ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). They’ve become the market’s go-to engine for altcoin hype.
According to Bloomberg analysts, ADA has a 75% shot at landing its own ETF this year. Not bad, but Solana and XRP are still ahead, each boasting a flashy 90% chance.
Hence, the question – Does ADA have the on-chain muscle to back up that optimism, or is this ETF dream still a bit of a stretch?
Can Cardano turn lag into leadership?
At press time, Bitcoin had bulldozed past its March resistance at $96k, with the crypto already testing $97k for the first time in over two months. Meanwhile, Cardano is exactly where it was a month ago, still struggling to reclaim the $0.80-zone.
Usually, this kind of lag sets the stage for altcoin catch-up rallies. However, ADA isn’t playing along. Why? Because every time it flirts with $0.70, one thing happens – Profit-takers flood the market.
Its Transaction Volume in Profit-to-Loss Ratio spikes like clockwork, showing that as soon as ADA gets some upward momentum, a wave of holders starts cashing out.
Additionally, Cardano’s NVT ratio just hit a three-month high, and you’ve got a situation where network value has been outpacing actual transaction activity. In other words, the altcoin’s price might be getting ahead of itself.
Source: Santiment
Taken together, these metrics highlighted a clear underlying weakness – Buyers aren’t stepping up, capital inflows are sluggish, and resistance at the top keeps slamming the brakes on any rally attempt.
If this keeps up, a correction may beat the breakout to the finish line.
In this context, even the 75% odds of a Cardano ETF, while promising on paper, may seem optimistic without stronger on-chain support.
The ETF race no altcoin wants to lose
The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is now approaching a critical supply wall, suggesting potential resistance for altcoins.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s dominance is close to 65% – A level that historically signals capital concentration in BTC and potential outflows from altcoins.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
According to AMBCrypto, with liquidity thinning across non-BTC, non-ETH assets, the need for institutional inflows into altcoins is more pressing than ever. This sets the stage for the intensifying ETF race, as altcoins seek to stay competitive in an increasingly BTC-heavy market landscape.
Right now, momentum seems to be favoring Solana [SOL], as evidenced by Bloomberg analysts assigning a 90% probability to the launch of a Solana ETF.
Moreover, the TRUMP memecoin launch on the Solana network has further reinforced its position as a key contender for institutional capital and ETF approval.
Therefore, for Cardano to remain competitive, it is crucial to reclaim overhead resistance zones.
Failure to do so risks losing ground to competing altcoins. The first altcoin to secure SEC approval for an ETF will certainly gain a lead in market momentum.
