Bitcoin made a stunning jump in the first half of 2023, hitting $30,000 again for the first time in months. It came after a bruising 2022, when the world’s largest cryptocurrency slumped over 60% as market players contended with a series of noteworthy industry collapses, including Terra, Celsius, and FTX. But 2023 has been very different — so far. Prices are up and big-name institutions have made bold moves into the space — most notably U.S. asset management titan BlackRock filing for a spot bitcoin ETF. At the same time, there have been a number of regulatory actions taken against crypto industry heavyweights, such as securities lawsuits targeting Binance and Coinbase , which have added significant uncertainty to the mix. What next for bitcoin? The digital currency’s blistering rally has taken many traders by surprise, as well as marked the return of volatility for the asset. After a more-than 80% jump in bitcoin’s price in the first half of 2023, crypto market watchers tell CNBC Pro how they expect the cryptocurrency to perform in the latter half of the year. The world’s top digital currency was last trading at $30,217.83, according to CoinGecko data. Five market experts responded to CNBC questions via email, and three said they expect bitcoin to reach the $50,000 level by the end of 2023. Hit $50,000? Carol Alexander, professor of finance at Sussex University, called the cryptocurrency’s march to $30,000 in early 2023. She said outsized buy orders from large holders known as “whales,” and renewed buying from institutional investors, could push the price of bitcoin up to $50,000 — or even $70,000 — by the end of the year. “If regulators don’t gain ground, institutional buying will be the main driving force for the bitcoin price to move upwards and could exceed $50,000 by year end, even reaching a new ALT [all-time high] of around $70,000,” she told CNBC Pro via email. “But if regulators, especially the SEC, do well to reign in Binance and other centralized exchanges like Deribit, the crypto options exchange, the price might end lower than $50,000.” Her price prediction was echoed by British bank Standard Chartered. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said he was optimistic that bitcoin would jump to that level, citing signs of reduced selling from miners — entities with purpose-built computing equipment that verify transactions on the blockchain. “In Q1-2023 (latest full data set), the 12 largest listed miners — which account for 20% of all global BTC mining — sold 106% of mined BTC (stockpiles pushed this above 100%). We estimate that this was slightly below 100% for Q2,” Kendrick said. “However, if the BTC price rises to around USD 50,000, which we expect by end-2023, the share of newly mined being sold should fall to 20-30%. That is a net annual reduction in selling of BTC 250,000 — a large number relative to bitcoin market turnover.” “We previously predicted that this driver would add USD 10,000 to the bitcoin price,” he added. “We now think this estimate is too conservative, and we therefore see upside to our end-2024 target of around $100,000.” Antoni Trenchev, CEO of crypto lending firm Nexo, told CNBC he “wouldn’t be shocked to see Bitcoin between $40,000-$50,000 at the end of 2023.” A major potential catalyst for bitcoin to rise further would be if the Federal Reserve makes a strong signal to the market that it plans to end its tightening cycle, according to Trenchev. Investor ‘belief’ The remaining two respondents to CNBC Pro were hedge fund manager Mark Mobius, of Mobius Capital Partners, and venture capitalist Tim Draper, of Draper Associates. Mobius said he expects bitcoin to climb to $40,000 by the end of 2023, citing investor “belief” in the digital coin. Draper didn’t give a year-end prediction for bitcoin but said he believes it will blow past $250,000 at the end of 2024, extending an earlier prediction he made for the token to reach that level by mid-2022. Another thing being closely watched is the possible approval of a bitcoin ETF . BlackRock first filed its application to launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust in June, with Fidelity following suit two weeks later. WisdomTree, VanEck and Invesco have also taken the steps toward their own funds. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have yet to approve any, and many don’t expect this to happen in 2023. — CNBC’s Kevin Schmidt contributed to this report.
