Back in 1995, when al-Faran terrorists kidnapped six foreign tourists from the Lidderwat area, also a meadow like Baisaran near Pahalgam, it suddenly brought back Kashmir into international focus at a time when the post-economic reforms India story was turning for the better. That was probably the first time Pakistan deployed foreign terrorists in large numbers to rekindle terrorism in the valley, as sustaining local enthusiasm had become hard with JKLF declaring ceasefire in 1994.
Now, too, Pakistan has infiltrated a large number of foreign terrorists to revive its old narrative. Islamabad’s furious efforts at enlisting support at the UN by trying to leverage its status as a non-permanent UNSC member, pushing through hard statements from OIC, are acts from an old playbook, further confirming role of its deep state.
While Pakistan’s economy has worsened over the years, India’s has improved dramatically. Globally, India is today best placed among larger economies to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions. If India were to firm up its trade agreements, particularly with the US, it would position itself strongly on the economic front – both as an investment destination as well as a reliable alternative to stressed global supply chains.
Clearly, much is at stake. To turn this region into another conflict spot like Gaza or Ukraine is not politically desirable for India, but one that Pakistan may want to press for. After all, bigger the conflict, greater the attention on Islamabad-Rawalpindi, on army chief Asim Munir, and Pakistan’s ambition to punch much above its political weight.This is why Pakistan’s ballooning defence budget – about 14.5% in 2024-25 and proposed 7.5% this fiscal – is cause for worry, especially for a distressed economy trying to revive itself on an IMF bailout plan. India, as an IMF board member, will have to work with partners to turn the economic spotlight on Pakistan as the board meets to decide on additional $1-2 bn assistance.Questions ought to be asked on whether IMF assistance is creating a fiscal space for the Pakistani army to pursue its off-the-book covert efforts in J&K. Islamabad-Rawalpindi has often got away by citing New Delhi’s bigger defence budget as security justification. This argument can no longer pass after Pahalgam, a fact that GoI can build on while calling for more accountability.
For these efforts to become more credible, India will need to move fast on its investigations, firmly link The Resistance Front (TRF) – a terrorist group the Pakistan foreign minister recently absolved of all responsibility in his statement before the Pakistani national assembly – with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and reopen the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) files.
Pakistan had agreed to conditions when it was let off the FATF grey list. These need to be revisited. Besides aligning its financial system with FATF standards, there were some India-specific terms:
Eight LeT leaders, including Hafiz Saeed, were charged and imprisoned, some for over 20 years. Their whereabouts need to be verified.
Thousands of properties, including madrasas, were seized, of which 85% belonged to LeT, and 15% to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Their status must be verified.
Status of several terror trials that Pakistan had started under FATF pressure must be obtained.
India must press for an on-site FATF visit, as Pakistan is still under observation.
In other words, India will have to remake its dossiers. If investigations deliver fresh evidence, it will help bolster efforts. The plus for India is it’s on firmer footing, given that Pakistan’s dubious track record has come under the scanner before.
Finally, given India’s high stakes, and rare window of strategic and economic opportunity to work on a breakout moment, zero-error plans will have to be made to secure India’s economic image.
The lesson from Pahalgam is the same as from 26/11 and other attacks aimed at not just hurting India’s image, but also to increase risks for anyone planning to visit, invest or build in India. The job at hand is to never let the guard down – without being obtrusive in policing, yet effective in protection – and reverse the risks of carrying out such operations on Pakistan by raising security levels against terror attacks.
