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10-year Treasury yield rises after ADP jobs data tops expectations


The 10-year Treasury note yield rose on Wednesday, adding to big gains in the previous session as private payroll data surpassed forecasts.

The benchmark rate added more than 3 basis points to 4.399%. The 10-year Treasury note briefly broke above 4.4% in intraday trade on Tuesday to notch its highest level since late November. 

The 2-year Treasury note yield ticked up by around 2 basis points, last sitting at 4.722%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Private payroll data from ADP released Wednesday morning showed more growth than anticipated. Companies added 184,000 workers in March, which was higher than the 155,000 estimate of economists polled by Dow Jones. It also marked the fastest pace of growth since July 2023.

The market moves come as investors track economic data and closely monitor clues from Fed policymakers about the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2024. Traders are pricing in a roughly 62% chance of a first Fed rate cut taking place in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s down from nearly 70% last week.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday that she still expects interest rate cuts this year, but ruled out their being implemented at the next policy meeting in May.

Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, said that she anticipates cuts this year, but not until there is more convincing evidence that inflation has been subdued.

Last month, the U.S. central bank met expectations and left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, keeping its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5%.

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The Fed also signaled at the time that it still expects three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of the year.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.



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