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10-year Treasury yield holds above 4.6% as investors weigh interest rate outlook


U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.

At 6:08 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by nearly 2 basis point to 4.6344%, trading at levels last seen in mid-November of 2023. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 4.947% after rising by less than one basis point.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Investors weighed the path ahead for interest rates as they considered the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Retail sales figures for March, which were published Monday, came in far higher than expected at 0.7%, lower than the forecast 0.3%. The data suggested resilience in consumer spending even as inflation remains persistent, with the latest consumer price index coming in higher than anticipated.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said there was “no urgency” for the Fed to cut interest rates.

“The worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency is not required,” she said, speaking at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

Concerns about rates not being cut for longer than previously anticipated have been growing, and market expectations for when the first rate cut will take place have recently moved backward.

On Tuesday, investors will be following further remarks from Fed policymakers, as well as building permit, housing starts and manufacturing production data.

Heightened geopolitical tensions after Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend also weighed on investors minds as observers awaited Israel’s response and world leaders called for calm and restraint.

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