If Elon Musk’s $44 billion bid to acquire Twitter is greenlit by shareholders and regulators in the coming months, the wealthy entrepreneur believes he’ll be able to quintuple the company’s revenue by 2028.
Speaking recently to investors, Musk said he believes Twitter could rake in revenue of $26.4 billion within six years, a massive increase on the $5 billion the company earned in 2021.
So, how exactly does he expect to make this happen?
Subscriptions would become a much more important revenue driver than it is today, accounting for $10 billion of the 2028 figure, while advertising would pull in $12 billion (equal to 45% of total revenue, down from 90% in 2020), Musk said in comments reported by the New York Times. It follows a revelation last week in which Musk said there could be a “slight cost” for commercial and government users wishing to use Twitter. The other $4.4 billion would come from elements such as data licensing.
Subscriptions would comprise two products, Musk said. The first is Twitter Blue, an existing service that offers users extra features for $3 a month, though this may be cut to $2. Musk said he thinks Twitter Blue can reach 69 million users by 2025, and 159 million by 2028.
The other is a new product called “X,” though Musk didn’t elaborate on what this would offer. He’s hanging a lot on it though, as he’s aiming for 9 million sign-ups in its first year before reaching 104 million users in 2028.
Musk is also intent on expanding Twitter’s payments business, which includes tipping and shopping, a move that could increase its revenue from an estimated $15 million next year to $1.3 billion in 2028. As the Times notes, it’s possible that Twitter’s prospective owner could also add a payment feature to the app, mirroring PayPal, a service that he helped to build two decades ago.
Musk also believes Twitter can expand its global community of users from 217 million to 600 million in 2025, increasing it further to 931 million in 2028, a bold claim considering the company’s slow growth rate in recent years.
Critics are already raising concerns about Musk’s plans for Twitter, with many worried that his expected move to reduce moderation on the service in the name of free speech may end up driving people away from the platform.
But it’s worth remembering this is the guy who turned Tesla into a moneymaker and also grew a hugely successful commercial spaceflight company in the form of SpaceX. Taking on Twitter is certainly a monumental challenge, but until Musk reveals more details about how exactly he wants to handle the business, it’s impossible to say how things will work out.